As far as nightmare scenarios go, losing to your fiercest rivals, and in the process, handing them the title, is right up there.

However, that is the situation facing Real Madrid on Sunday, as they head to Camp Nou to take on Barcelona in El Clasico.

Should Barca, who are 11 points clear at the top of LaLiga with four games to play, avoid defeat, then they will get their hands on the title.

While a draw would do the job for Barca, the Blaugrana will want to get over the line in style.

When the date for the second Clasico of the season was set, it always looked like it could be a title decider, though whether anybody foresaw the gap between these two giants being quite so great is up for question.

Even if Barca slip up, it would still take something of a miracle for Los Blancos to flip the script and win the title from here: It would be the comeback of all comebacks.

Opta's supercomputer does not fancy their chances of that miraculous title win. The likelihood of them doing so is just 0.08%.

Here, we preview a potentially title-deciding Clasico, using Opta insights.

What's expected?

Only once before has a LaLiga title ever been decided directly by the result of a Clasico.

It took place in the 1931-32 season. Madrid, under Hungarian manager Lippo Hertzka, managed a 2-2 draw on the final matchday of the campaign, seeing them edge out Athletic Club to the crown.

Of course, there have been plenty of examples of these rivals meeting in finals, when prizes have been on offer.

Counting two-legged ties, there have been 28 such instances, across the Copa del Rey (eight times), Copa de la Liga (twice), which ran for four years in the 1980s, and Supercopa de Espana (18 times).

Madrid have taken 11 titles from these games, with nine going Barca's way.

And Madrid do have some hope. They have won eight of their last 12 LaLiga meetings with Barca (L4), as many victories as they managed in their previous 32 encounters in the competition (W8 D7 L17).

That includes Los Blancos winning 2-1 in the reverse fixture earlier this term, with Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham getting the goals.

None of the last 12 LaLiga meetings between Madrid (eight wins) and Barca (four) have ended in a draw, the longest run without a league Clasico finishing level since a streak of 18 matches between 1977 and 1986 (10 Madrid wins, eight Barca wins).

At home, Barca have won two of their last three LaLiga meetings with Madrid (L1), twice as many victories as they managed in their previous seven home games against them in the competition (W1 D3 L3).

The Opta supercomputer is, probably as expected, favouring Barcelona. Flick's team come out on top in 49.8% of the model's 10,000 data-led simulations, with Madrid handed a 27.2% win probability.

There is a 23% chance of a draw.

Flick looks to go back-to-back

Barca might have lost superstar Lamine Yamal to a season-ending injury, but they really do not look like slipping up from here.

And if, as expected, they get the job done, Hansi Flick will have won the league in his first two seasons in charge of the Blaugrana, becoming just the fourth coach to do so in the 21st century, after Pep Guardiola, Luis Enrique and Ernesto Valverde.

Following their 4-3 victory last season, Flick could become the second Barca coach to win his first two home LaLiga matches against Madrid in the 21st century, after Guardiola (first three).

Barca are on a roll, too. They have won their last 10 LaLiga matches, their best run under Flick.

Only four coaches in the club's history have achieved 11 consecutive league victories: Guardiola (a run of 16 and another of 11), Frank Rijkaard (14), Luis Enrique (12) and Tito Vilanova (11).

The Blaugrana are also on a 54-game scoring streak in LaLiga (since a 0-1 defeat against Leganes in December 2024), the longest active run in the five big European leagues.

Yamal is Barca's leading scorer (16 goals) and assister (11 assists) in LaLiga this term, but other players have certainly chipped in.

Ferran Torres, who scored what proved to be Barca's winner in a thrilling conclusion to the Blaugrana's clash with Osasuna last week, has contributed with 15 league goals, while Marcus Rashford has 14 LaLiga goal involvements to his name.

Raphinha, who was an unused substitute against Osasuna, netted twice in Barca's 3-2 win over Madrid in the Supercopa earlier this season.

Madrid's worst nightmare

Madrid will be desperate to at least put Barca's celebrations on ice, but there is no getting away from the fact it has been a torrid campaign for Los Blancos, who will finish it without silverware.

Los Blancos have lost two of their last five LaLiga away games (W2 D1), as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 17 away matches in the competition (W12 D3 L2).

Alvaro Arbeloa will take charge of his first Clasico. Only four Madrid coaches have debuted with a victory in an away match at Barcelona: Jose Quirante in 1929 (1-2), Carlos Queiroz in 2003 (1-2), Bernd Schuster in 2007 (0-1) and Zinedine Zidane in 2016 (1-2).

Arbeloa could well be heading into his final matches as Madrid boss, with Jose Mourinho reportedly a target for Florentino Perez, so frustrating Barca could be his best chance of keeping hold of the job.

And to make matters worse, Mbappe is an injury doubt, amid plenty of speculation surrounding a rift between the star striker and some of Arbeloa's staff.

While both parties have aimed to quash those rumours, they are not going away, and it is proving a dismal end to a miserable season for Los Blancos, who have also been rocked by a training ground bust-up between midfielders Federico Valverde and Aurelien Tchouameni.

Interestingly, Madrid have accumulated 68.1 expected points to Barca's 68.8, but the Blaugrana have greatly overperformed compared to their rivals.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Barcelona – Robert Lewandowski

Lewandowski has been in fine form. He has registered a goal involvement in each of his last three LaLiga matches (two goals, one assist) and could be involved in at least one goal in four or more consecutive games for the eighth time in the competition.

Overall, the Pole has netted 13 league goals this season, despite playing just 1,378 minutes, meaning he averages a goal every 106 minutes.

Only three Barcelona players have a better shot conversion rate than Lewandowski's 22%, while he has got 27 of his 59 efforts on target in LaLiga in 2025-26.

Real Madrid – Vinicius Junior

With Mbappe an injury doubt, Arbeloa might be relying on Vinicius, who has scored eight goals in 23 appearances against Barca in all competitions.

Only against Valencia and Osasuna (nine) has the Brazilian netted more.

Vinicius can also make a huge impact in other areas, with only Arda Guler (70) creating more chances than his 65. He only has five LaLiga assists this term, though.